Report 4 7 November – 4 December 2019

David Deacon, Jackie Goode, David Smith, Dominic Wring, John Downey, Cristian Vaccari

• The most striking finding is the reduced prominence of Brexit as a substantive theme in the fourth week of the campaign - nearly halving its presence from last week (11 percent of all issues in week 3 to 6.7 percent in week 4).
• This may be partly explained by news organisations preparedness to diversify coverage of the campaign away from an issue that dominated the early stages of the election as well as the impact of other important external events such as the terrorist attack and the 70th anniversary NATO summit.
• That said, it also reflects how Brexit has become a more latent than manifest element in some coverage. For example, several Health/ Health service items linked to discussion of hypothetical post-Brexit trade deals (e.g. President Trump’s comments at the start of the NATO summit that the US wants ‘nothing to do with the NHS’). But for such items also to be coded as Brexit-related there had to be a clear and substantial reference made to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. Reporting of hypothetical future trading scenarios and their implications for public health provision were insufficient on their own to gain a ‘Brexit’ allocation.
• This growth of more allusive referencing to Brexit shows how the issue has become more of a contextual factor than a focal point of much electoral coverage: at once everywhere yet nowhere.
• Coverage of ‘Business/ Economy/ Trade’ is now the largest substantive policy theme (9.6 percent).
• ‘Health/ Health Care’ is the second most prominent theme at 9.4 percent, reasserting its presence having fallen away in week 3.
• ‘Defence/ security/ terrorism’ received 10 times more coverage in Week 4 than Week 3. This is explained by the terrorist attack in London on Friday and the NATO 70th anniversary summit held in Watford earlier this week.
• These links were often reported as highly contentious. This is demonstrated by the ongoing prominence of issues concerning ‘standards/ corruption/ scandals/ sleaze’ (7.3 percent). In week 3 this category captured the controversy surrounding antisemitism and the Labour party (see also the linked category ‘Minorities/ religion/ sexuality’). These allegations continued into week 4 but were surpassed by criticisms of politicians who allegedly sought to make electoral capital out of the terrorist murders committed on 29 November.
• Coverage of the ‘electoral process’ itself remained at the previous week’s levels (28 percent).
• Taxation coverage reduced sharply in the fourth week (3.5 percent down from 10.6 percent).
• Environment coverage remains low (3.2 percent). This is not to say there has not been a significant amount of environment related coverage during the campaign. The low figure here reflects the fact that many of these items have a global rather than local emphasis and do not specifically refer to the current election campaign.

• The results demonstrate that the two parties have chosen to focus on very different issues during the sample period. Discussion of public services – the 7^th most prominent category within the tweet sample – is the only theme for which there is broad parity of emphasis.
• All other thematic categories are dominated by one or the other party. Brexit, taxation, crime/law and order and immigration are the Conservative Party’s key electoral issues, while Labour have chosen to focus on healthcare, business/economy/trade, the environment, social security and housing.

• The media issue agenda in this period in thematic terms was remarkably consistent across the sectors: Brexit, business/economy/trade, taxation, corruption and scandals, and health were all in the top five in each of the four media sectors.
• While the first and third of these issues have been covered heavily by the Conservatives in their Twitter activity, the second and fifth have been covered more consistently by Labour.
• TV coverage has focused far more on Brexit than on any other issue: 20 percent of coded themes have been about Brexit on TV, compared with only between 8 percent and 10 percent of the other top five issues.
• Within print media, the broadsheet press have focused on Brexit and business/economy/trade the most, while the mid-market titles have covered taxation more than other newspaper types and the red tops have focused more heavily on corruption and scandals, and health.
• In proportional terms, TV coverage has therefore tended to align most closely with the Conservatives’ Brexit agenda than the press. This difference may be partly explained by the more limited news space available in TV coverage compared to newspapers.

• Overall, approximately 60 percent of party/leader tweets have promoted the party’s policies, election strategies or leader, while in 31 percent of cases tweets primarily functioned to attack opponents.
• Instances of ‘attack tweets’, show that each party has tended to expend most of their criticism on attacking each other’s party or leader.
• Conservative party/leader tweets have more often attacked Jeremy Corbyn than Labour party/leader tweets have attacked Johnson.
• The Lib Dems and Jo Swinson have received criticism from Labour more often than from the Conservatives while there have also been a small number of Conservative/Johnson tweets attacking the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon.
• Labour have also on several occasions attacked other actors in the election debate, such as Donald Trump.

• The overall high level of negativity towards the Labour Party has remained constant throughout the election campaign, increasing week-by-week. Manifesto and policy announcements have not managed to reverse this trend over the course of the campaign.
• Unweighted coverage of the Conservative Party started off overall as mildly positive but has progressively become more negative over the course of the campaign and increasingly so in the aftermath of the London Bridge terrorist attack. Negative coverage more than doubled in week 4.
• Weighted coverage remains positive for the Conservative Party because of the high circulation of the Sun and Daily Mail, Conservative supporting newspapers.
• It is noteworthy the extent to which this election is presented as a two-horse race between Labour and Conservative parties. Initial more negative coverage of the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats has declined, which might be an indication that they are now seen as increasingly irrelevant for the election outcome.

• The main party leaders continue to dominate coverage of this campaign. Their prominence continues to remain unchallenged for a further week, and Jeremy Corbyn retains his place at the top of the list. But some of the attention paid to the Labour leader, particularly in the print media, continues to be very hostile towards him, his party and their manifesto.
• Jo Swinson and Nicola Sturgeon, respectively the leaders of the next largest parties in electoral and parliamentary terms, continue to be among the most prominent campaigners but are still some way behind their Labour and Conservative rivals.
• John McDonnell has firmly established himself as a constant presence and Labour’s second most prominent campaigner reflecting both the promotion and criticism of his party’s spending plans. Sajid Javid continues to receive some attention but markedly less than his shadow.
• The LibDem and SNP leaders are two of the four women in this week’s Top 10 but, while this may look slightly more diverse than in previous reports, 16 of the Top 20 are male.
• Reflecting the presidential nature of this campaign, Boris Johnson’s controversial strategist Dominic Cummings make his first appearance in the list, relatively high up the list and above every other Conservative, apart from the Prime Minister himself.
• The impact of the televised debates is reflected in the prominence afforded to several participants including Green co-leader Sian Berry, Richard Burgon, Adam Price and Rishi Sunak.
• The prominence of the debate over health and security is reflected in the prominence of campaigners like Matt Hancock, Priti Patel, and John Ashworth. The decline of Brexit related coverage is reflected in Nigel Farage’s decline to near the bottom of the Top 20.

• The two-party squeeze continues into the fourth week in national press coverage, with representatives of the two parties commanding 90 percent of appearances.
• The squeeze is not as tight in television news, with the two parties accounting for 66 percent of coverage.
• There is a remarkable parity in the overall amounts of coverage given to the two main parties and their leaders. In both the press and television coverage, their prominence is almost identical.
• Jo Swinson has dominated the Liberal Democrat’s share of TV coverage, reflecting her appearance in the broadcast debate formats.
• Nicola Sturgeon has continued to maintain her profile in broadcast media terms and is by far and away the face of her party when the SNP is represented on television.
• The Brexit and Green parties have enjoyed some broadcast coverage, benefitting from the exposure that has come courtesy of their participation in the key television debates.
• Other parties including potential power brokers in a hung parliament such as the SNP, DUP and Brexit Party, have received scant print media coverage heading into the closing stages of the election.
• Prominent in the press at the start of the campaign, the Brexit Party is virtually anonymous now.