The UK’s cost of living support won’t protect the poorest – here’s what the government should do instead
UK households have faced unprecedented blows to their living standards in 2022. Home energy costs have more than doubled and are threatening to triple, the price of petrol has risen by more than half since the start of last year and overall price inflation is heading for double digits.
We have seen plenty of comparisons to the 1970s recently, but two things could make today’s situation even worse. Inflation has not built gradually, but will have gone from zero to double digits in less than 18 months. This sudden acceleration has left people’s incomes far behind. Secondly, the course of this crisis has been highly unpredictable, with forecasts constantly being revised upwards. This creates the risk that any response will be out of date by the time it is implemented.
This crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon, particularly as global energy costs continue to have large and highly unpredictable impacts on people’s finances. To address it properly, the government needs to develop a clear policy about how to respond to a constantly changing situation.
I experienced this volatility as an analyst when I responded to a request from former prime minister and chancellor Gordon Brown to assess the effectiveness of the government support package announced in May. It is still in the process of implementation but it gives a seemingly generous £1,200 a year to the worst off families.
As my resulting report shows, even at the time it was announced, the package fell short of compensating people on low incomes. These households have experienced the combined blows of last October’s £1,000-a-year cut in universal credit, April’s uprating of benefits by only 3% when inflation was 9%, and the £800 increase in fuel bills that was forecast last May for this October. Under these circumstances, a family with two children would be around £1,600 worse off overall, an significant deficit for those already struggling to make ends meet.
Continued…
To read the full article by Professor Donald Hirsch, visit the Conversation.
ENDS
Notes for editors
Press release reference number: 22/160
º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ is one of the country’s leading universities, with an international reputation for research that matters, excellence in teaching, strong links with industry, and unrivalled achievement in sport and its underpinning academic disciplines.
It has been awarded five stars in the independent QS Stars university rating scheme, named the best university in the world for sports-related subjects in the 2022 QS World University Rankings and University of the Year for Sport by The Times and Sunday Times University Guide 2022.
º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ is in the top 10 of every national league table, being ranked 7th in The UK Complete University Guide 2022, and 10th in both the Guardian University League Table 2022 and the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022.
º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ is consistently ranked in the top twenty of UK universities in the Times Higher Education’s ‘table of tables’ and is in the top 10 in England for research intensity. In recognition of its contribution to the sector, º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ has been awarded seven Queen's Anniversary Prizes.
The º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ London campus is based on the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and offers postgraduate and executive-level education, as well as research and enterprise opportunities. It is home to influential thought leaders, pioneering researchers and creative innovators who provide students with the highest quality of teaching and the very latest in modern thinking.
UK households have faced unprecedented blows to their living standards in 2022. Home energy costs have more than doubled and are threatening to triple, the price of petrol has risen by more than half since the start of last year and overall price inflation is heading for double digits.
We have seen plenty of comparisons to the 1970s recently, but two things could make today’s situation even worse. Inflation has not built gradually, but will have gone from zero to double digits in less than 18 months. This sudden acceleration has left people’s incomes far behind. Secondly, the course of this crisis has been highly unpredictable, with forecasts constantly being revised upwards. This creates the risk that any response will be out of date by the time it is implemented.
This crisis is unlikely to be resolved soon, particularly as global energy costs continue to have large and highly unpredictable impacts on people’s finances. To address it properly, the government needs to develop a clear policy about how to respond to a constantly changing situation.
I experienced this volatility as an analyst when I responded to a request from former prime minister and chancellor Gordon Brown to assess the effectiveness of the government support package announced in May. It is still in the process of implementation but it gives a seemingly generous £1,200 a year to the worst off families.
As my resulting report shows, even at the time it was announced, the package fell short of compensating people on low incomes. These households have experienced the combined blows of last October’s £1,000-a-year cut in universal credit, April’s uprating of benefits by only 3% when inflation was 9%, and the £800 increase in fuel bills that was forecast last May for this October. Under these circumstances, a family with two children would be around £1,600 worse off overall, an significant deficit for those already struggling to make ends meet.
Continued…
To read the full article by Professor Donald Hirsch, visit the Conversation.
ENDS
Notes for editors
Press release reference number: 22/160
º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ is one of the country’s leading universities, with an international reputation for research that matters, excellence in teaching, strong links with industry, and unrivalled achievement in sport and its underpinning academic disciplines.
It has been awarded five stars in the independent QS Stars university rating scheme, named the best university in the world for sports-related subjects in the 2022 QS World University Rankings and University of the Year for Sport by The Times and Sunday Times University Guide 2022.
º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ is in the top 10 of every national league table, being ranked 7th in The UK Complete University Guide 2022, and 10th in both the Guardian University League Table 2022 and the Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2022.
º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ is consistently ranked in the top twenty of UK universities in the Times Higher Education’s ‘table of tables’ and is in the top 10 in England for research intensity. In recognition of its contribution to the sector, º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ has been awarded seven Queen's Anniversary Prizes.
The º¬Ðß²ÝÊÓƵ London campus is based on the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and offers postgraduate and executive-level education, as well as research and enterprise opportunities. It is home to influential thought leaders, pioneering researchers and creative innovators who provide students with the highest quality of teaching and the very latest in modern thinking.
